Why Building from the Net Out is a Horrible Idea II: The Reckoning

So, my first serious post was not enjoyed... I sort of saw that coming. Mostly because I'm not a particularly smart individual. However, one thing that I am is stubborn and as it were, I'm here to defend my terrible ideas... Partly because I'm as stubborn as a mule, partly because I really do believe that the return one gets comparatively from a forward is greater than the comparative return from a goalie.

The major knock in my analysis is that I'd compared the in game impact of one individual to a group of twenty. Please understand that that was, in no way, the case. In fact, I agree: the goalie is the single most important player on a team. That is not what I am arguing. What I am arguing is that there is so much parity between goalies, that all starters are so good at the NHL level, that their relative impact from one to another is somewhat negligible.

Moreover, this allows me to compare the impact of one forward to one goalie and their comparative impact on the game.

The league leader in GAA is Annti Niemi (his gaa is skewed by a great defense, mind you) and sits at 1.98. The average GAA is 2.64. This accounts for a difference of.66 goals per game. Projected over a 82 game season this translates to 54 goals.

The league leader in goals is Alex Ovechkin with 42 goals, the average is 7 (his point totals provide an even larger difference compared to the average-89 to 17). This is a 35 goal difference after 53 games. Coincidentally, this translates to a goal differential (when compared to the average) of .66.

So right there, we are comparing the impact of two singular players, fully neglecting the impact AO has on his linemates (and his 40+ assists). More importantly, a star's presence provides a ripple effect for all of his teammates. The quality of opposition falls for all other lines. This is evidenced by Mike Knubles jump in point scoring despite his age

By the way, Aaron Asham recently scored his 7th goal of the year.... Who falls on the average for GAA and SV% respectively? Marc Andre Fleury and Marty Turco... Just some food for thought about comparative impact

Why Building from the Net Out is a Horrible Mistake

There's an old adage in hockey that says: You build from the net out. This adage points to the idea that Goalies are the single most important position in the NHL, and while the goaltender is a very important position, it is hard to for me to fathom the importance placed on the position. In fact, I'd say that , given the choice between a star position player and a Goalie one should just about always choose the position player as goalies are overvalued at the NHL level. This may sound odd but let me explain:

Before we get into any of this I'd like to present some numbers to you. These are the save percentages of goalies that get the majority of starts for a team. Two ends of the spectrum are shown high sv% to the left, low sv% to the right (Vesa Toskala is not a starter, I don't care what anyone says):

.931-- .908
.931-- .906
.927-- .905
.925-- .904
.924-- .903
.927/913-- .894

The first thing that you may notice is that there is not a drastic difference in these numbers. Granted, .931 to .894 looks incredible but that's 37 more goals out of 1000 shots. To put into perspective, a Sv% of .931 is only 4.1% more effective than a Sv% of .894. Again, the most effective starting goalie in the NHL is 3% better than the least effective starting goalie in the NHL and will have 28 fewer goals against.

Now, Here are the teams corresponding with the Sv%s listed above:
Florida-- Washington
Buffalo-- Pittsburgh
San Jose-- Philadelphia
Calgary-- Tampa Bay
Colorado-- Chicago
Montreal-- Columbus


The left hand column has only 1 team not in a playoff position (Florida). The right hand column also has 1 team on the outside looking in (Columbus). I guess what I'm pointing to here is that there is little correlation between Sv% and team success.

Still, when you think about it it shouldn't be that shocking. As I stated before, the most effective starter is only 4.1% better than the least effective starter. Still, the case against the importance of a goaltender gets even more damning when you consider the offensive numbers of a team and how they relate to success. We just looked at 6 of the top and bottom teams in terms of Sv%. Now we'll look at the top and bottom 6 teams in terms of shooting%.

11.9%-- 8.5%
10.6%-- 8.4%
10.5%-- 8.1%
10.4%-- 8%
10%-- 7.7%
9.9%-- 7.5%

Consider the highest shooting % compared to the lowest: .119 to .075. The highest shooting % is 58% more effective than the lowest and will score 44 more goals per 1000 shots. Remember the Goalie comparison indicated a 4.1% increase in effectiveness and a decrease of 37 goals against. Long story short, 44>37

Now here are the teams that correspond with those numbers:

Washington-- New York Rangers
Colorado-- New Jersey
Vancouver-- Toronto
San Jose-- New York Islanders
Los Angeles-- Detroit
Atlanta-- Boston


The left hand side has the teams with the 6 highest shooting%s. Of those 6 only 1 (the Atlanta Thrashers) is currently not in a playoff position. On the right there are the 6 lowest teams in terms of shooting%. Only one team is currently in a playoff position. The correlation here is incredibly strong. This isn't a phenomenon exclusive to the top 6 either. 11 of the top 15 teams in terms of shooting % are in playoff positions, 10 of the bottom 15 are not.

The real issue here isn't whether or not a goalie is important (it is important). The issue is that the disparity in effectiveness between a group of forwards, on average, is going to be greater than the disparity between two goalies. The issue is that building from the net out offers, at most, a 4.1% increase in effectiveness whereas taking the opposite route offers a 58% increase. This is why I see the goalie position as being overvalued in the NHL. This is why building from the net out is a horrible mistake.

What say you?

Holy Hell that was Hard to Watch

Where's Antero Nitttyyymakki and his unnecessarily hard to spell name when you need him?

Winners and Losers: The "Maybe We Don't Suck That Much," Edition

Alight, so it's been a while, but with the holidays we got a little lazy here at Two For Slashing. Nevertheless, we are back and better than ever-which isn't hard to accomplish when previously god awful. Still, we have almost a month of winners and losers... and, unlike the NHL, there are some ties this time around. Get ready for the ride of your life!


Loser-The Rulebook

So, if you'll recall (which you probably won't) the first "Monday's Moral" blog directly referenced Chris Pronger intentionally dropping his stick in order to draw a penalty. Well, it seems the rest of the league is catching on. Sticks are being dropped left and right and the "automatic slashing penalty for stick-on-stick contact" needs to change. As does the "delay of game" but that's for another time.

Losers-Winter Classic Attendees
The winter classic is approaching with a 70% chance of rain. Two Drexel Students are riding a tandem bike to the Boston. It sure would suck if it rained on their parade. Good news is, no matter what the weather is, the ice will be better than that at Nassau Colloseum

Winners-New York Rangers named Marian Gaborik

What the hell happened to this guy? Currently tied for the NHL lead in goals with some dude named Alex, Gabby has been setting the league on fire. He's always been a "if he stays healthy" type players. Still, this pace is incredible even for a player of his talent. Now, imagine if he had anyone else on that team who could score.

Tie guys-The Fly Guys

Well, most would list the Flyers as "losers" over the past month.... I'm not one of them. Most will say it's becasue I'm a "Flyers Homer" or "wishfully thinking" or "a complete and utter jackass." Tomato-Potato, really

Still, it can't be ignored that the Flyers have recently started putting together good efforts (I cite the Boston game as the turnaround). While, the last 3 wins haven't been against the creme de la creme, it is important to note that they are still NHL teams with NHL talent. No win should be scoffed at and 3 straight to a struggling team does a lot to climbing out of the hole created by lackluster play.

Losers-Columbus Blue Jackets

So much for Steve Mason being the best goalie ever to live. What did I say about blue-chip prospects playing for Ken Hitchcock again? Was it that he ruins them? Yeah, well, it appears he's done it again.

Winner-Me

My last bold prediction (in the 11/17/09 posting) stated that the Blue Jackets would fall... Don't worry, I'll be making more predictions and keeping track

Right now I'm 1-0

Bold Prediction

The Philadelphia Flyers will be comfortably
(by which I mean by at least 6 points)in a playoff playoff position By February 4th

Coming up: New Years Resolutions


Have a good day
--TFS

New Years Resolutions

So, it's that time of year again. No, not the time that I finally get back on the computer after a long turkey-induced coma-it's time for resolutions. Some of your favorite players have a lot of changing to do... Without further ado, here are the top 10 (in no order) resolutions


Evgeni Nabokov- "Finally teach everyone how to spell my name correctly without citing Malkin."

Rick DiPietro- "Kick this injury bug without pulling groin."


Peter Laviolette-"Make angrier faces and scare children."

Peter Forsberg- "1) Fix foot 2) Don't break everything else in my body."


Sidney Crosby- "Finally figure out where this whole rumor of me joining the Canadian Olympic diving team came from."


Ron Tugnutt- Convince Rick DiPietro, Marian Gaborik, and Martin Havlat to join comedy troup called Tugged Nutz. Go on tour with top joke being as follows

Havlat: I know a man with a wooden leg named "Smith"
Gaborik: What's the name of his other leg?

Comedy gold

Alex Semin- "Put the capitals on my back for a long march into the playoffs without breaking it."

Anze Kopitar- "Get believable prosthesis to replace wooden leg."

Dion Phaneuf- Finally finish "See Spot Run"

Daniel and Henrik Sedin "Get really good at half the subjects in school and take eachother's tests. Get straight A's and have mom and dad buy that sweet Honda they promised us if we got straight A's. Ask Cindy Anderson and Mary Libowska to homecoming."

Bold Prediction(s)


Phoenix gets gives up 3+ goals in a loss

The Ducks will be in the playoffs by the olympic break

Monday's Moral: Unfair is Fair

Every Monday I'll examine the latest outcries in the NHL or a derivative thereof. This week we examine blown calls and lack of accountability


The Headline?

Disallowed Goals Alter the Outcome of Games

The Story?

This past week two games were decided (or their outcomes were altered deeply) by blown calls. In each game the puck clearly crossed the goal line but because there was either "inconclusive evidence"-which there wasn't- or the ref had "intended" to blow the whistle-which he didn't-each goal was disallowed. Again, I will reiterate, in BOTH OF THESE GAMES those disallowed goals would have altered the outcome and provided the team scoring with a win. Still, is there good reason for the fans of these teams to be a pissed as they have been?


The Moral?
Unfair is fair, but stupid isn't


The Point?
OK, let's look at this from a purely mathematical standpoint. Referee's are human, they are not going to get the call right 100% of the time. In any given night a ref is faced with, literally, hundreds of decisions about what call should be made or not made. Now, what if Referee's, like goalies, had a correct call%. For the sake of argument we'll say they operate at around 95%. That means that of any 20 calls 1 is likely to be incorrect. Now, what that means is that EVERY team gets screwed over. Not every one will be as bad as a disallowed goal, but sometimes it is. And sometimes, a bad call which puts a team down a man with 1 minute to go is just as bad. The point is, folks, that every team gets screwed out of numerous opportunities to score. And while a sure goal being disallowed certainly stings more. 5 powerplays not called for a team that operates at 20% provides, on average, the same result-a goal disallowed.

The Solution?

My major issue with these calls is not that the goals were disallowed it's that there were rules in place to allow them to be disallowed. Confusing? Damn right it is. Lookit, there is too much that needs to be done to overturn a no goal call. There will always be mad scrambles on these plays and obstructed views. But if a glove is in the goal, and the puck is in the glove, is the goal disallowed because we can't see the puck? Let's not be stupid about this. Does the "no goal" call stand because the ref intended to blow the whistle? I intended to be an Fireman when I was 5. Does that mean I can start axing doors and using a firetruck as my main means of transportation. According to the NHL, it does. Unfair can be fair (especially when dealing with blown calls-which happens to everyone over a 82 game season), but stupidity is an entirely different story.

Overlooked Awards and Their Likely Winners

Here is a list of awards which, for some reason, have been completely overlooked by the league of national hockey players as well as the league of nations and the odds on favorites for each award at this point in the year.

Jim Carey Award- Odds On Favorite: Carey Price

This award goes to the player who best exemplifies the ability to be an absolutely incredible goaltender for one season early in his career and then just implode. Now, I'm not willing to say Price is cooked yet. However, the true spirit of the award is for someone who "exemplifies" those capabilities, not necessarily achieves them and price has certainly has shown the ability to implode.

HM: Steve Mason


Alexander Daigle Award-Favorite: Nikita Filatov

This award is not given to the player who best exemplifies the ability to be taken in the top 10 of a draft and then eventually fade out with the team that drafted him. Now, I think Filatov will have a long and illustrious career. Just not with a Ken Hitchcock coached team.

HM: Gilbert Brule, Any draft pick that ever played for Ken Hitchcock... ever

Davey Jones Peg Leg Award-Odds On Favorite: Anze Kopitar

Now, again, I'm fully aware that Anze Kopitar has 2, fully functional legs. But come on, if one player in the NHL only had one leg it would be Kopitar, right? Maybe not. Just think about it.

HM: Any player whose name sounds pirate-y

Pavel Bure Back-checking award-Odds On Favorite: Jason Blake

This award is given to the player who best exemplifies a clear hatred or inability in the field of backchecking. If the puck is in their zone it's pretty much a 5 on 4.

HM:Daniel Briere

Wendel Clark Award for Best Moustache-Odds on Favorite: George Parros

Make no mistake, that is one glorious 'stache.


Mikael Handzus Award for Silliest Hair- Odds On Favorite: Scott Hartnell*

'Nuff said

HM: Noone, his hair is THAT silly
*The irony is not lost on me that Handzus is not even an "HM" for an award named after him whilst he is still active



Al Iafrete award for hair that makes me the saddest when I imagine my future-Odds on Favorite: Mark Recchi

'Nuff sad ---> :-(

HM: Any NHL player who's hair reminds me that my childhood heroes are mortal.



Well, there you have it, the list of awards not formally recognized by the NHL. Ones that, by all accounts, should be. It is, in my expert opinion, the biggest travesty in professional sports that Scott Hartnell's hair is not universally recognized as silly.

--TFS